The Incentive Research Foundation’s Industry Outlook for 2026: Merchandise, Gift Cards and Event Gifting reports a mix of optimism and emerging challenges across North America and Europe. Economic and financial confidence among organizations is high, with over 90 percent of respondents in both regions expressing a positive outlook for the year ahead. However, this optimism is tempered by flat budgets, increasing costs, competing priorities, and shifts in spending patterns.

“Incentive programs are important tools for businesses, particularly during challenging economic times. The number of program participants is projected to increase in 2026, despite flat budgets and rising costs,” said Stephanie Harris, president, IRF. “Incentive program owners are approaching 2026 with a strategic mindset, carefully managing costs while aligning rewards with organizational objectives and participant preferences.”

The IRF collected 400 responses to the 2026 Industry Outlook survey. Responses were split evenly between North America and Europe, targeting a variety of industries in Canada, the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. The study also includes segmentation by employee rewards and recognition programs, sales incentive programs, and channel rewards programs.

Key findings, benchmarks, and year-over-year comparisons reported in Industry Outlook for 2026: Merchandise, Gift Cards and Event Gifting include

• While most budget increases are expected to keep pace with the rate of inflation, 65% of North American programs and half of European programs expect growth in the number of participants receiving a non-cash incentives
• Gift cards continue to be the most widely used reward, with 70% of North American organizations and just under 60% of European organizations anticipating increases in gift card use
• Use of dining gift cards (54%) surpassed online-only retailers (50%) which had been the most used branded gift card type by North American respondents for several years
• Merchandise spend is on the rise. In Europe, the average per-instance spend has increased €74 over last year. North American merchandise spend is nearly $100 than previous years.
• Event gifting is impacted by budget pressure, with only 10% of planners anticipating budget increases that will outpace inflation
• Gift cards have become the most widely used event gift, overtaking merchandise in both North America and Europe
• In North America, 62% of organizations expect their program technology budgets to increase, and in Europe, 63% anticipate growth

View or download a copy of the study at the Industry Outlook for 2026: Merchandise, Gift Cards and Event Gifting webpage.